It is interesting to see so many comments except the underlying reason China would go after Taiwan, and that’s because of oil in the Spratly Islands. Tell me we are fighting a war for nothing in Iraq, and oil is not the reason. How much are we paying at the pump now? The PRC see's us doing it, and to them that sets the example. Not to mention them trying to buy American oil companies. As to air power. The PRC has something like 800 medium range missiles pointed at Taiwan at such a short distance that the Taiwan air force could never get off the ground before its wiped out if it was targeted, and they just had major landing exercises along with Russian Troops, ships and aircraft.
If it takes a couple patriot missiles to take out one scud then how many will Taiwan need? I doubt they have a hundred.
They are building new pipelines from Russia and the middle east, but why pay for it when you can have it for free. Of course that would upset the economic balance of the world, but if they are making everything for everybody anyway whats the difference. The european aircraft maker Airbus wants to start building their jetliners in China and save a few bucks. The European clothing industry is about to be wiped out because they can't compete with China. Taiwan could just be a big training exercise for the Chinese military that no one wants to be involved with like Hitler and Austria. He did say that Austria was really a part of Germany before WW1 just like Poland.
Deja Vu

Posted by: Franklin at November 10, 2005 9:07 PM

David Axe,

Thank you for your well considered response. I also hope that you are not mistaken, however, I fear that you might well be. I do not question that the Chinese are capable of considerable empty rhetoric, unfortunately, they have in recent years chosen to increase this rhetoric in response political developments in Taiwan. In making increasingly loud threats, the Chinese have placed themselves in a position where they eventually must either act or be seen as ineffectual. It is difficult to believe that in making such threats the mainland is primarily motivated by a desire to dissuade Taiwanese voters or politicians from declaring independence - eventually, if the current situation continues, the Taiwanese will make such a declaration. Rather, I believe that the PRC is making explicit a threat that they will carry out at a time of their own choosing: think Korea 1950.

Exacerbating this motivation is the fact that it has been some time since the Chinese have experienced the deleterious effects of war - Vietnam in the late 1970s. Certainly there must have emerged leaders in the PRC military who are eager to demonstrate that they are capable of better planning and execution than was demonstrated in the badly bungled Vietnam operation. An economic downturn, which must afflict the PRC eventually, might well increase the attractiveness of such a campaign as it would provide the party with the means to justify its leadership to a dissatisfied population.

Your points regarding the technical and material limitations on the Chinese military are well taken. However, China has assets that could mitigate these limitations. For instance, China might make limited use of its nuclear weapons, or, might threaten the use of such weapons in order to discourage active resistance by certain factions and individuals within the Taiwanese military, at least a portion of whose membership either sympathetic to the PRC call for unification, or, believe that resistance is futile (sentiments that were alluded to by another reader). In addition, China possesses the vestigial institutions and inclinations necessary for the type of revolutionary societal mobilization warfare that shocked the U.S. in both Korea and Vietnam. In the context of an invasion of Taiwan, such warfare might take the form of "flooding the zone" with an invasion fleet consisting of thousands of troop laden fishing boats. All in all, I think that the risk of a forceble attempt by the PRC to reunite Tawian with greater China is a tangible concern that is not to be written off as the pipe dream of pentagon planners searching for a new threat. The U.S. must either find ways to deter such an eventuallity, or, it should have the honesty to inform the Taiwanese that they are on their own and therefore should make the best deal possible with the mainland.

Posted by: J. Brenner at November 1, 2005 1:49 PM

I think there's quite a bit of complacency about what China can do, accompanied by underestimates of Chinese intentions and capabilities. For example, the number of Su-27/30s given in the comments above is incorrect, the current figure is nearly twice that, about 380. China now has more modern aircraft than Taiwan does, and many of Taiwan's 'modern' aircraft are the untested IDF.

This is a chronic topic of discussion on the Taiwan blogs. Here and here for a debate between myself and MeiZhongTai, who blogs on Taiwan defense issues, over how things will proceed. I also have a speculative China Blitz scenario here that is well worth reading, with links to other ones.

Michael

The fact is that Taiwan's military is staffed largely by mainlanders who may go over to China if it gets troops onto the island. The island's two mainlander-led parties are both more or less pro-China.

Posted by: Michael Turton at November 1, 2005 8:04 AM

Yeah, look at how we won WW2. It was our superior manufacturing capability that brought us through that one. And look at us now... Oh wait, we're a service economy now, in debt to our eyeballs to countries like China. Countries with service economies get their asses kicked in wars with countries who have manufacturing economies. Boy, I hope China never develops one of those.

Posted by: Dfens at October 31, 2005 7:25 PM

Given that China wants to sieze Taiwan I imagine thay are pissed.

I do think that China is likely overated as an emerging superpower, but giving the Taiwanese a helping hand in preserving their independence seems to be a good rather than a bad thing.

While the goals listed in the article are all accurate, it does omit one biggie, invading Taiwan. That said, increasing the disparity would seem to be not really a bad thing.

Posted by: Ken Talton at October 31, 2005 5:38 PM