Last year Strategypage noted that any proposals to use ballistic missiles (silo-based or otherwise) as conventional PGM delivery systems- an idea, by the way, which certainly has some merit- will have to deal with the fact that all ICBM/SLBM launches look the same from an early warning satellite. Any deployment has to consider the reaction of the Russian (or Chinese, etc.) strategic warning system when an unannounced missile launch takes place. They nearly started a war over a research rocket in 1995; imagine their reaction ten years from now when a brace of SLBMs are fired off at an unknown target.
(Marshal! The Yanks have launched missiles from Indian Ocean! Bring Strategic Rocket Forces to state of maximum readiness!)
Therefore we may see treaties or agreements limiting use of PGM ballistic missiles to very specific circumstances to prevent fears of strategic surprise; some sort of hotline notification, perhaps. (But then, do we trust The Other Guy with such sensitive information?)
This system was unthinkable fifteen years ago; if anything I'm glad the world situation has changed sufficiently that we are no longer guaranteed to provoke a war with it in the near future.

Posted by: TrustButVerify at February 13, 2006 10:20 AM

re: Global Strike:

The idea of putting conventional warheads atop ICBMs has been around since at least the 1980's. If ICBMs become a common delivery system, expect countries worldwide to invest heavily in ABM weapons which, sadly, will also lead to a proliferation in ASAT weapons. There really is no last word in weapons development. Every action has a reaction.

Posted by: James at February 12, 2006 3:03 AM

Damn, that's what I get for living in inland CA. :(

Oh well.

Posted by: Charles at February 10, 2006 4:04 PM

Good Morning Noah,

Microsoft doesn't like your other link so I will pass on the word here.

The Navy this week has be working out the "Fire Scout" of the coast of Southern Kaleefornia, I can see some the action from my living room. Anyway, the local NBC TV station has footage of the "Fire Scout" landing on a moving ship. Something that happened first only about three weeks ago.

ALLONS,
Byron Skinner

Posted by: Byron Skinner at February 10, 2006 1:43 PM