Got a tip for Noah?
SEND IT!
(Guaranteed Confidential)
Subscribe

Subscribe via RSS

Archives by Date
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006

See all Archives
Archives by Category
'Canes
Ammo and Munitions
Armor
Axe in Iraq (and Elsewhere)
Bizarro
Blimps
Blog Bidness
Bomb Squad
Cammo Green
Chem-Bio
Cloak and Dagger
Comms
Cops and Robbers
Data Diving
Dissent Tech
Drones
Eat My Dust
Eye on China
FCS Watch
FOS Files
Gadgets and Gear
Ground Vehicles
Guns
Homeland Security
Info War
Iraq Diary
Lasers and Ray Guns
Less-lethal
Logistics
Los Alamos and Labs
Medic!
Mercs
Missiles
Money Money Money
Net-Centric
Nukes
Planes, Copters, Blimps
Politricks
Rapid Fire
Raptor Watch
Red Team
Retro-Futuro
Roll Your Own
Sabra Tech
Ships and Subs
Space
Strategery
Terror Tech
The Deadlies
Those Nutty Norks
Training and Sims
War Update
You can run...

See all Archives
Related Links
News and Intel
Military.com News
Aviation Week
Natl Defense Mag
Strategy Page
Global Security Newswire
Soldiers for the Truth
Security News
Defense Review
Fed Comp Week

Security Sources
GlobalSecurity.Org
Fed Am Sci
CSIS
Ctr for Defense Info
Defense & Natl Interest
Instit for Sci & Intl Secy
Secrecy News
POGO
Cryptome
The Memory Hole
Natl Security Archive

Geeks and Mad Scientists
Slashdot
Wired News
Security Focus
The Register
Gizmodo
Geek Press
Robots.Net
Cosmic Log
Space Daily
New Scientist
TechCentralStation
Engadget
Space.Com
Technology Review
Gyre
Near Near Future
Fed Dev Blog

Bloggers and Buddies
Phil Carter
Global Guerillas
Jeffrey Lewis
Milblogging
OPFOR
Laura Rozen
Larisa Alexandrovna
Juan Cole
Ryan Singel
Josh Marshall
Cursor
Boing Boing
InstaPundit
Winds of Change
Tapped
TalkLeft
Brad DeLong
Mountain Runner
Gene Healy
Clive Thompson
Greg Djerejian
Jeff Quinton
Workbench
Electrolite
Jim Henley
War in Context
Kathryn Cramer
Wash Park Prophet
Blogs of War
Tom Shachtman

Official Dispatches
DARPA
AF Research Lab
Marine War Lab
Soldier Systems Ctr
Naval Research
Army Research Lab
UK Def Sci Lab
NASA News
DoJ Cybercrime

Military Network
Military Benefits
Veteran Employment
GI Bill Express
Personnel Locator
Free ASVAB
The Few
Fred's Place
Army Insider
Navy Insider
Air Force Insider
Marine Corps Insider
Coast Guard Insider



Edited by Noah Shachtman | Contact

Iranian invasion? Probably not

Shi'ite militiamen have seized control of Al Amarah, the largest city in the southern province of Maysan, according to The L.A. Times:

Police barricaded themselves inside their stations and fought off the attackers, but eventually fled after running out of ammunition. The militiamen, affiliated with Shiite cleric Muqtada Sadr, then stormed the stations. At least 15 people were killed in fighting today and 90 people were injured. Another seven were killed the previous day.

272545580_631b40e465.jpgHere's why you shouldn't worry. The police in Al Amarah are some of the most thuggish and corrupt in all of Iraq -- and that's saying a lot. For most Al Amarah residents, militia control might be an improvement.

But it's not those poor Iraqis most pundits and politicians are worried about. It's Iran. And to those who paint Iraq in broad brush strokes, Shi'ite Iraqis and their militias are just fronts for Tehran, which slips agents and weapons over the porous border in the bottoms of Marsh Arab fishing boats.

It's a little more complicated than that, as I explain over at World Politics Watch:

For 4,000 years the [Shi'ite] Marsh Arabs have inhabited what is now southern Iraq. For much of that history they were ignored by the various governments that rose and fell in the region. The result is a xenophobic, deeply traditional society where tribal leaders are the highest authority -- and where political borders are largely irrelevant.

Not that those political borders are always clear. Maysan's marshes are a shifting landscape devoid of permanent features. [British commander Lieutenant Colonel David] Labouchere says it's difficult to mark a border in such a place. "The division between Iran and Iraq is, at places, fuzzy," he says. So fuzzy that, two years ago, eight British servicemen were briefly detained by the Iranian military after accidentally crossing into Iranian waters while delivering boats to the Iraqi Navy.

If British troops can't tell where Iraq ends and Iran begins, how can anyone expect illiterate Marsh Arab fisherman to know and care -- especially when, from their shared point of view, borders are matters of tribe and marriage, not politics and international agreement?

Bottom line: militia seizure of Al Amarah doesn't entail an Iranian invasion of Iraq any more than Marsh Arab fishermen are Iranian agents.

--David Axe

Comments

most people in the world pay lots of money (and if they do not have the money, cheat, sneak, marry into) to just immigrate and live in the US.

most people in the world especially Russia, China, India, most africa and the non-rich middle-easterns would love to live in the USA.

Why, because it is great economy, excellent
healthcare and stable political system.

Why is that: that's because US economic system is built on top of meritocracy: you get paid not based on your last name, or where you parents from but what you can do, who you can work with, what you can create.

Why political system is so stable: because it is not nearly is corrupt as in those nations, and there is self-regulating democracy.

Why there is a self-regulating democracy? that's because there is one fundamental thread in US that does not exist anywhere else in the world (including developed European countries). The thread is: there is large enough majority of people in US who believe that Government is to serve people and not the other way around. that's why 2nd amendment is important, free speech is important/etc.

So as far as I am concerned, I belive that I represent the majority of those people who
want to come and live in US ( I was lucky enough
that this became a possibility for my and my family 14 years ago). And there is nothing wrong
with US and US corporation colonizing those places.

Western European countries, without US economy are
not sustainable, so they would not mind that either. And overall, I believe the US policy is
to create fair and useful long-term trading partners whose economics are based on the same principles as US (meritocracy)... and that is a great goal to have.

I the mean time, there are enemies who do not want this to happen, because they know they cannot
trade fairly... instead they want to have a grip on the natural resources and people, so they use religion and jealousy of US's economic success to insight resistance, but eventually they will loose
.


So yes, Iran will be just the next step,
then Syria, then we will wait till Saudies reform, and if not we will help, and then after the Saudies the money supply to the enemy will stop, and the rest will be easier.

Posted by: worker at October 23, 2006 5:22 PM


Iran next? we learned some time ago that Navy minesweepers were being sent to Gulf, by Oct 1. Likely prep for eventual, inevitable US, or Israeli pre-emptive action against Iran.

They also watched.....and then opened up nuclear sites to "tourists"......as human shields.

recent actions of "Axis of Evil" partner North Korea,likely, resulted in postponement of next step in oil securement....

still, inevitable as you say, The Other One.....note todays' diatribe from Iran threatening European supporters of Isreal.......

Posted by: campbell at October 20, 2006 7:02 PM


One "invasion" is simply justification for another.

Subtle distinctions (as well as the blatantly obvious) have no effect on the war-crazed US government. Simply put, Iran is the next phase of the global oil conquest, and no amount of logic, dire forecasts of economic ruin, military exhaustion, etc., can do anything to derail the voracious congressional - military - industrial - complex that really runs this country.

Peace is great, but the pay is peanuts ...

Posted by: Noah (the other one) at October 20, 2006 6:27 PM


» Post a Comment