“China performed a successful anti-satellite weapons test” last week, according to Aviation Week. In the trial, a ballistic missile, armed with a non-explosive warhead, “destroy[ed] an aging Chinese weather satellite target” over 500 miles above the Earth, U.S. intelligence agencies believe.
The news comes just a few months after reports of China testing high-powered lasers to temporarily blind American orbiters. “If the test is verified it will signify a major new Chinese military capability,” AvWeek says. And it could be the spark that ignites an arms race in space, analysts believe. Theresa Hitchens, with the Center for Defense Information called it an “irresponsible and self-defeating act” that will give “space hawks… more ammunition to take the United States down a similarly dangerous path.”
Details emerging from space sources indicate that the Chinese Feng Yun 1C (FY-1C) polar orbit weather satellite… was attacked by an ASAT [anti-satellite] system launched from or near the Xichang Space Center.
The attack is believe to have occurred as the weather satellite flew at 530 mi. altitude 4 deg. west of Xichang, located in Sichuan province…
Although intelligence agencies must complete confirmation of the test, the attack is believed to have occurred at about 5:28 p.m. EST Jan. 11. U. S. intelligence agencies had been expecting some sort of test that day, sources said….
USAF radar reports on the Chinese FY-1C spacecraft have been posted once or twice daily for years, but those reports jumped to about 4 times per day just before the alleged test.
The USAF radar reports then ceased Jan. 11, but then appeared for a day showing “signs of orbital distress”. The reports were then halted again. The Air Force radars may well be busy cataloging many pieces of debris, sources said.
Harvard University’s Jeffrey Lewis, a self-admitted skeptic about China’s space ambitions, has been hearing from many sources in recent months that “China’s ASAT work seem[s] to have been ramping up.” He writes over at his blog, Arms Control Wonk:
If China has conducted an ASAT test, this is extremely bad. I had been hoping that the Bush Administration would push for a ban on anti-satellite testing, either in the form of a code of conduct. The Bush folks, however, have been fond of saying that wasn’t necessary, because ‘there is no arms race in space.’
Well, we have one now, instigated by an incredibly short-sighted Chinese government.
(Big ups: EM)
UPDATE 11:42 AM: Why would Beijing pull a stunt like this? The China Matters blog has a theory. Meanwhile, one keen space-watcher notes that, if this anti-sat weapon was really “kinetic” — i.e., hit-to-kill, non-explosive — instead of a plain ol’ exploding weapon, that’s extremely bad news. That means the booster rocket has to be very accurate “in order to deliver the kill vehicle to the desired initial trajectory…. Then the kill vehicle needs to tweak its trajectory into a precise collision course using on-board propulsion and either on-board target tracking or… command guidance from the ground.” That’s no mean task.
ALSO:
* China Space Attack: Unstoppable
* Beijing’s Next-Gen Sat Strike
* Satellite Killer’s Broad Impact
* Why Did China Smack the Sat?
* China Sat-Killer Not Yet Weapons Grade?
* Who Ordered the Satellite Strike?
SCARY!!! I could care less if any nation has anti-sat weapons. Just because someone has the capabailty doesn’t mean that it will ever be used. The US Intel community should stop wasting time spying on developed countries. The Chinese or Russians are not going to detonate a smuggled nuclear weapon in the US, like transnational Islamic terrorists would. So who is the bigger danger? We can’t find UBL, but we can spy all day long on China’s wannabe military projects.
It would be uselful though if the US starts another war, because no group/nation will ever wage another conventional war against the US, which is why the Pentagon is clueless, and will get caught with its pants down, again. They prefer to buy small numbers of big sexy war machines. The last line of the post about China being short sighted is beyond ridiulous (Five Year Plan), no country is more short sighted than the US. East vs West philosophy.
Suggesting that the Chinese have started an arms race in space is really cute.
Does he think anyone is going to believe it?
re: “short sighted”. No, not a far East character at all, instead, they tend to take a very long look at the future. I do not subscribe to the “transformation” bit, but I would agree that armed conflict with China is all but inevitable. I expect that they are taking a long look, allowing us to squander our military (or willingness to employ it)in mid-Eastern matters.
as to an arms race in space……our ARROGANCE in supposing our continual supremacy, is short sighted indeed.
’twill be most interesting to find out, neh?
Wow I can’t believe this is the only place that i am reading this story! I have checked the mainstream sites and “nothing”. I thought this would be BIG news.
Revelations concerning this alleged ASAT test are indeed disturbing. But like the earlier accounts of the supposed illumination and blinding of US spy sats, one has to wonder why in advance of the Olympics in particular, the Chinese would elect to go down this path. Creating a new LEO debris field with all the adverse fallout in global satellite circles, and knowing that such a test would be detected instantly amounts to an ill-conceived blunder at best.
But contributions to the growing mass of space junk not withstanding, at the same time, the Chinese have kinetic kill vehicle technology which continues to evolve. OK. So, there is no real headline and no reason why the Chinese test in itself should be seen as a monumental achievement in a technical sense.
What we do know is that in Chinese satellite circles, the loss of Sinosat-2 in October 2006 still stands as the pivotal event of the past year. The loss has probably triggered considerable internal turmoil and will have serious repercussions due to the now disrupted rollout of Chinese domestic DBS and HDTV coverage, timed for the 2008 Olympics. A possible setback on the diplomatic front, ie, a disruption of the planned launch of Nigeria’s first communications satellite which China built and financed, and which is based on the same core bus that Sinosat-2 used must be considered as well.
Sinosat-2, the first of a new series of jamming-resistant satellites which emerged in 2002 after the Falun Gong jamming episodes, reminds us that China probably must be quite fearful that through some creative plotting, a significant disruption of Olympics coverage might occur, involving satellite feeds and sliced fiber optic cables or both.
Get the picture. Keep this in mind as you observe China putting a huge emphasis on building cooperative agreements. In space matters, observe the talks with ESA and efforts to strengthen their APSCO regional space cooperation plans. And so now, they go ahead and blow up one of their own satellites out in space where the debris field creates headaches for everyone? Not a very cooperative move on their part.
It plays right into the hands of a vocal and influential group which forged the new US space policy and testified in open session on Capitol Hill this week that all future US Navy ships need to be nuclear powered because we all know that if and when war breaks out with China, one of the first things China will do is sink the the USN’s fleet of naval oilers. AO’s perhaps tracked in large part by satellite, by the way. (this final comment is mine and not part of testimony in question)
If the ASAT report is true, China has destroyed a weather satellite, only to create a storm in the process. Again, it does not make sense.
As I recall any country has the right to the sovreign airspace 50 miles above their country.
Everything after 50 miles is like international waters.
If I were President, any attempt made to subvert or destroy American interests in those “international space waters,” would be an act of war.
I’m interested to hear what the illustrious Theresa Hitchens of CDI has to say about this event, after dismissing claims of “China’s burgeoning antisatellite capabilities” in a previous post (Chinese Laser vs. U.S. Sats?). “Who SAYS?” quoth Ms. Hitchens. Well, I guess the Chinese say so.
A “Code of Counct”? Why didn’t I think of that. It’s obvious, the Chinese would never violate a “code of Conduct”.
“If China has conducted an ASAT test, this is extremely bad. I had been hoping that the Bush Administration would push for a ban on anti-satellite testing, either in the form of a code of conduct. The Bush folks, however, have been fond of saying that wasn’t necessary, because ‘there is no arms race in space.’
Well, we have one now, instigated by an incredibly short-sighted Chinese government.”
Bwahahah you guys gotta warn people before as*hat statements like that I nearly choked attempting to keep from spraying my laptop.
I wonder if the Chicoms would honor that “code of conduct” or treaty as much as they honor our Patent Laws now. Or maybe the fair currency practices most western nations honor.
But I guess from the Chicoms point of view it would be a excelent idea we get needless red tape restrictions on our potential military research the Chicoms get some fancy US signed papers to wipe there as* with. Win Win in any Chicom book.
“short sighted chinese government” ?? huh Will someone please send this pacifist a history book about the tale of the only “pacifist” nation to exist in recent history. Tibet its a wonderfull story on how a once powerfull asian nation found Budda, found inner peace, found the ultimate warm fuzzy of self disarmament, then found decemation at the hands of the Chinese Communist who for some odd reason was amune to the “Hug them show them we love them” pacifist defence policy. Then finaly the Tibetans learned how to be good 2nd class dirt people within thier new masters Province Chinese tibet.
Human Nature its amazing.
While I may or may be “illustrious,” I’m obviously not infallible.
That said, my earlier comments came after years of hype about Chinese military and space capabilities, worst-case scenario characterizations a la the late Soviet Military Power. That observation, re the tendency to hype the Chinese threat, has been made by many analysts across the political spectrum, including Joan Johnson-Freese of the Naval War College, not exactly your typical bastion of Commie-pinko thought. Further, the comments were in the context of the story about the Chinese lasing incident, which U.S. officials consistently have refused to characterize as a “weapons test.” Indeed, contrast the reaction to this test — public denounciation, diplomatic demarche — to what happened in the wake of the lasing incident, which was nada, even though that incident involved a U.S. satellite (obviously a much more grave threat if the lasing was actually an ASAT test.) So, while I readily concede “my bad” on being too skeptical of Chinese ASAT capabilities, it still behooves all to have some caution in parsing claims made in public media. The bottom line at this point is that the Chinese have demonstrated KE ASAT capability — something that the U.S. did back in 1985 — and now we have to figure out what exactly their intentions were/are and how best to deal with the situation. I would suggest that the answers to those questions will be multifaceted and complex, rather than black/white or force-on-force responses. That doesn’t mean that spades shouldn’t be called spades: deliberately creating massive amounts of space debris in a highly used and already highly polluted orbit is not only irresponsible and deplorable, it is downright stupid. If anything, this proves the urgency of establishing amongst the space-faring powers rules of responsible behaviors and levels of punishment for those who would flout those rules.
It is probably true that China will not attack us directly, at least not until others have done it for them. China is perfectly content to quietly build its military capabilities while displaying to the rest of the world the fiction that they are a peaceful, responsible nation. Hosting the Olympics is great PR on the world stage, and it is a key factor in perpetuating that image. China will happily work behind the scenes and in the shadows to encourage others to attack us and further bog us down. Once they are convinced that we are sufficiently overextended militarily, they will finally make their move on Taiwan, capture it, and then issue a nuclear weapons-backed ultimatum for us to stay out of their affairs. BTW, internal Chinese military doctrine not only regards Taiwan as Chinese property, but also regards the Phillipines, Japan, Hawaii and other Pacific nations as historically Chinese property, and they ultimately intend to take them back. They figure it’s “their turn” to be a world superpower, now that the Soviet Union is no more.
We will be involved in a hot war with China within the next 20 years, and it will probably go nuclear.
This article has information, but the replies are very funny to watch. Americans use their “American logic” to evaluate China, which leads to many laughable conclusions that make sense only to Americans.
Since America is more and more incapable of stopping Taiwanese declaration of independence, the Chinese declassification of some technological progress is just to remind folks that war is going to be tough for everybody.
It is purely American imperialism to forbid others do what Americans have done decades ago.
A U.S. WAR WITH CHINA IS NOT INEVITABLE!
There are ways and means of avoiding war if you really want to (accepting rulings of the UN and International Court and through non-aggressive diplomacy). The problem with the U.S. is they’ve become reliant on war to achieve political goals and prop up their economy. America spends more on “defence” (in the Orwellian sense of the term) than the rest of the world combined and has been, in some way, shape or form, permanently at war since the War of 1939-45, yet they claim to be “a peace loving nation.”
The question shouldn’t be how you can beat China in the next inevitable war, but how you can avoid war altogether.
-oz
No real suprise for Red China to act in this manner. Sad thing is, our “trade partner” is looking at the Taiwan straits plausible only within a decisive action. While we barely maintain conformity from admin to admin our little buddies are looking forward to their children bening the world’s rulers. So first stop Taiwan, then onto claiming all the US assets we are in hawk to them. Hell, our media will notice it only when their communist rag sails over our soil. China is about to embark on New World History, that is to say they’re going to show the world what domination is all about. Scary stuff. Cause even after this idiotic move we are still “friends.” Is that because of their financial affluence?
1. This ASAT technology, apparently being kinetic, need not be super-sophisticated. Compare a sniper’s round to a shotgun blast. Both will hit a target, but it’s a lot easier merely to aim in the general direction of the target.
2. Chinese culture has long been known for taking the long view. Current Chinese political leadership is, at heart, unconcerned with world reaction unless it suits their purposes. They pay lip service and Pollyanna-ish simpletons like “oz” buy every word of it. Assume every action taken by the Chinese political machine to be considered as conferring a benefit, somewhere along the timeline.
3. ASAT technologies can also be employed against ballistic missiles that have not reached final re-entry and deployed warheads. From a military point of view unconcerned with civilian casualties, as long as that nuclear warhead doesn’t detonate, who cares if multiple tons of wreckage plunges to the ground, either in my territory or perhaps another’s?
4. If I can neutralize your nuclear threat effectively, and I out-number many of the nations on the planet combined, and I have enormous stockpiles of cheap weapons with world-wide stocks of common ammunition, I win. Especially if my cultural value system places a low emphasis on the value of human lives. Cannon fodder for breakfast, anyone?
5. The reason for political deference to China due to its questionable status as “Trade Partner” by the U.S. is self-evident. The politicos dance to the tune that their financial puppeteers whistle, and cheaper is better, right?
Even if all of your technology is stolen, sold, or reverse-engineered, right? RIGHT?
6. Have you ever been in a public venue with a wide variety of ethnic and cultural diversity? Have you observed the prevalent behaviors of the various ethnicities and cultures? I myself most often note Asian peoples as the least considerate of others, the most arrogant in their dealings, and the most apt to make distinctions based on the most trivial of differences.
7. Due to human nature, pacifism is a Darwinian aberration. The more warlike will simply eliminate those not willing to respond to aggression with aggression. This applies one on one, tribe on tribe, and nation on nation.
The most ironic aspect is that the United States, due to its unique geographical separation and lack of centuries-old historical legacy, has quite often been isolationist. Before both of the World Wars in the 20th Century (Western-centric), the U.S. maintained a fierce “Not My Problem” stance. That is, until some over-confident aggressor committed some barbaric act.
That’s when that unique geographical separation coupled with vast natural resources and backed by an in-grained sense of equal parts defiance and vindictiveness becomes lethally effective.
America is a cultural/political entity that pretty much avoids the pitfalls that plague cultures in long-populous portions of the world. For the most part, American culture isn’t constantly playing down historical legacies and the attendant resentments.
Look at Bosnia. Once the Soviet hammer fell and shattered the Soviet sickle, centuries of religious hostilities exploded. Result: atrocities of horrifying scale. Trace out the root causes and you’ll have a pristine example of why the U.S. is what it is.
Look at China, consider the points above, assume the worst of human nature will come to the fore, and the road ahead is obviously fraught with peril.
Why is China super obsessed about Taiwan for? You’ve been seperated (and most Taiwanese want it that way) for 50 or 60 years now. Get over it China! You got rejected by your love interest.
Seeing the way Americans react to displays of power is amusing indeed. A few months ago the USA declared their will to cripple enemy satellite abilities and space capabilities if they are deemed hostile. China has merely done the same thing, stated to the world that it, too, has an interest in space. Essentially, China just asked everybody to play by the book, an alien concept for american foreign policy used to the motto “our way or no way”. Up until now, it was always the US that imposed de facto restrictions to other countries’ ambitions, now it is their turn to being told what not to do.
As for the “inevitability” of a future war with China, it is even more amusing. First of all, contrary to your historical “fear of the Reds”, China is now communist only in name, it is rapidly changing to a more or less free market. Moderated by the state, for sure, but free nonetheless. And let’s be honest, China has no real interest in the Americas and doubly so for the US. If they want to invade someone, they have so many areas around them with vast resources and within reach that it would be stupid to try to invade you. What have you to offer that they can’t find in Siberia, Indochina or Australia? However, the reality that they have not already invaded these territories shows that they are content with what they have.
And let’s not forget that it wasn’t China that has been constantly invading other countries since 1948. USA has such a tarnished warmongering record that they really have no right to accuse anybody else of the same tendencies.
Wait a minute, I thought we (the USA) were the only ones in the world allowed to do stuff like this??!!
http://www.minor-ripper.blogspot.com
The Taiwan-China issue is like the US civil war. Taiwanese are racially Chinese. They are the SAME people. Most Taiwanese still have blood relatives living in China. Taiwan became a political entity because the KMT government (that claimed rule over mainland China in the 1940s) fled to Taiwan after losing the civil war to its communist brethern. Everyone in the KMT government that started Taiwan in the 1940s was born and brought up in mainland China. In fact, it was the NATIONAL Taiwanese government policy to reclaim the mainland. That’s why the official name of Taiwan remains The Republic of CHINA. Starting in the 1980s, when the Taiwanese govt realized that it can’t reclaim the mainland that it started on the separatist path. Even then, not everyone on Taiwan wants to be a separate country. It just appears that way in the media because the separatists make more prevocative statements and the pro-separatist media play up unscientific opinion polls to portray that the entire population wants separation.
To say that China is threatening to foreign countries because of its Taiwan policy is disingenous. The Confederates wanted to have their own separate states but the northerners refused. Had the Union not prevailed in the war, there would be 2 countries on today’s continental USA. If California today wants to seceed from the USA because of differences in political opinion and “cultural differences”, there would be considerable unrest. Despite the supposed freedoms in the US, I don’t think the President and the rest of the country would allow it. Even in relative seclusive Quebec, its secession efforts were met with considerable anger in the rest of Canada. Now, can you understand the groundswell sentiment in China against an separate Taiwan?
To allow Taiwan to separate from China will really split China. This is not only opposed by Chinese living on the mainland but also Chinese living outside China. It is seen as a betrayal of blood ties. The US should stay out of this. The white man has a terrible not to mention bloody record of making things worse for other races–remember the short shrifting of native american tribes for one.
In stark contrast, the USA has been invading other countries post WW2. There is no natural right that the US should be the pre-eminent superpower in the world. American military spying on China and Bush’s claim on space are provocative acts. It’s time that the rest of world balance or even contain American power. Americans should not be allowed to run the world and dictate terms. US behaviour at the UN is callous and arrogant. It accuses the UN of being ineffective but that’s only because the UN doesn’t agree with US policy. Why do you think the muslims are resorting to terrorist acts to fight the US?—because they feel aggrieved against the US running roughshod over everyone in the middle east. Terrorism is the last straw–it’s really a sign that the people fighting you are so oppressed that they don’t care to live anymore–they only want to hurt you back. It’s too much to ask the US to choose to do right when it conflicts with its self-interest. That’s why the current political environment where the US is the sole superpower is destablizing for the world. The US has to be contained. Russia is preoccupied with its own issues. Hopefully, China can play a role to counterbalance the US.
JH,
Imaging some foreign country telling Abraham Lincoln forget about the Civil War even after years of ideology split between Northern and Southern United States.
Credit should be given to China that she is trying her very best to reslove the Taiwan issue peacefully.
Wow……where to start???
First of all, cultural ignoramus: you’re definitely not one.
You and I are among the few who have studied and experienced enough to correctly assess the situation. But apparently our education is somwhat incomplete….
Surely you must understand that the UN, despite its abysmal track record of toothless decrees and inept “peacekeeping” missions, is the one and only beacon of truth and light that the rest of the world should follow.
Similarly, you and I are misinformed about China. After the Communist uprising, the former leaders and their followers were allowed to flee to Formosa (now known as Taiwan) it was agreed that they could live there in peace, with their own government, as long as they ceased fighting the Communists. As for the mainland, they aren’t Communist at all. They’re true free-market capitalists. Never mind that they barely tolerate capitalism within their borders only to reap the benefits that always result from a free-market economy. Never mind that many years ago they artificially reduced by about 50% the fair market value of their currency in order to lure giant American companies and technology to their shores, while simultaneously undercutting the rest of the Pacific-Rim countries. Some of the American companies are starting to pull out now, and are somehow surprised to learn that China considers their “privately-owned” facilities to be Chinese property. What a shock! Who could have seen that coming? Don’t worry, though…I’m sure China will have free democratic elections real soon.
You and I are also apparently greatly misinformed about US military “invasions” since WW2. I guess we were just running roughshod over the countries of the Middle East prior to the 9/11 attacks. We, along with many other countries, did invade Iraq, but only after numerous failed sanctions by the UN. When we did finally invade, it was with the UN’s blessing, but I guess that’s just an inconvenient fact we should ignore. Aside from that, I guess I’m just a bit foggy on the other “invasions” we committed. But I guess depending on one’s political viewpoint, they’re all injustified invasions, and we probably somehow caused the Korean War and forced the North Vietnamese to attack their blood brothers to the south.
As for the American Indians, yes, atrocities occurred, and (gasp!) they were committed by both sides, but American Indian tribes killed each other in far greater numbers than did the European settlers, and had not the Europeans settled this land, it would have ultimately been settled by others, and those settlers might have just slaughtered or enslaved the entire native population rather than put up with the attacks.
Clearly, you and I should study harder, or maybe we haven’t been reading the “correct” textbooks.
The two most powerful nations go to war with each other, and people think their will be a winner. There has never been a direct conflict with two great powers, with each country having nuclear weapons. Put down the anti-Soviet logic and tactics, they will not work. I am still amazed we survived the Cold War, came pretty damn close of blowing up the planet though. Why people want to try it again is beyond me.
Every action in the World has an equal and opposite reaction, with a system constantly trying to seek and maintain a balance. Empires rise to fill vacuum of other dying Empires (US topped out around 1902). We can go quietly and benefit from it, or we can go messy and lose it all, but a new balance (new world order) is inevitable. If you have never been to mainland China, and interacted with the locals, you don’t know what you’re talking about. Demographics are destiny.
Those of you whom read all my posts know that my world view is controversial because I take an amoral stance. I prefer to sacrifice old US allies and assets to get new, more relevant and useful allies and assets. Democracy is not important to me, because it takes decades to take hold. Everything and everyone has a value, and a fair price can be obtained through skillful negotiations. Give up something big in the near term, to get something bigger, and more important, and valuable in the far-term.
Well, basically, the American Government is a bunch of assholes and the Chinese Government is a bunch of assholes. Eventually China will give USA some of their own back, then they’ll be the world superpower and we’ll all be used in Chinese medical experiments and have operations done on us while we’re awake.
Who started the Nuclear test first, the US
After they got the data, information and technic, they ask the world do not carry out nuclear tests.
Whoever do it is Devil.
Who carry out the satellite killer scheme first, the US
After they got what they want, they tell the world not to do it, and the Chinese is ‘inconsistent with the spirit of cooperation that both countries aspire to in the civil space ‘area.
Is it fair
Go china, i mean come on, USA has spy sats spying on eveyone, and now when china proves they can shoot down Satallites the USA starts to cry to mamma, Americans are Hypocrites and Democracy just dosnt work…all i can say well done china lets see what else you can do to stick it to the american bullies.
Interacting with the locals is nice, but they don’t run China. I have many Chinese friends and I keep up with what is going on over there. Currently, China is desperately trying to contain a peasant rebellion, and their economic house of cards is near collapse. They are building numerous flashy new skyscrapers while the ones they’ve already finished sit idle and empty. The image China is trying to put forth and the strategies they are pursuing are nearly identical to those of Germany between WW1 and WW2. Hitler’s Germany also hosted the Olympics and tried to use the Games as a forum to show the world how nice they were. I think most of us know what happened next. You can continue to wear your blinders if you like, but China is building a military far larger than they need for their defense. When they begin to conquer other nations, many of them will start calling on the US “bully” to bail them out. That’s why our military has been built to the levels it has largely maintained since WW2. We take it upon ourselves to defend not only our country, but those of our allies and other nations, some of whom who are unwilling or unable to defend themselves from attacks by more powerful military forces or rebel groups. Had it not been for the dramatic buildup of the US military in response to the Axis threat of WW2, a lot of the world would now be speaking the German language.
i think we should fry the chinks and russkis with as many a bombs as we need.i am sick of them using third world coutrys to fight us.so lets nukem now.
JohnG,
Your economic and civilian analysis of China is correct, but then you blew it with the usual World War historical analogies. Regardless of what the Chinese Government’s strategy is, they created something that will spiral out of control and end their current “Communist” Government. It’s kind of like controlling the content on the Internet, they try, but it’s impossible.
China is going to be a Superpower and will dominate Asia; the debate is whether the US should try to contain it, like the Soviets. We will try that, because it is in the American psyche, but it will fail because the rest of the world does not want that. Then you have to ask, if the US wants to fight over it, without both sides using nukes. The CBA of that strategy is a loser, so find something that is mutually beneficial. The British, French, and American influences in Asia have been declining for over a hundred years; it will be gone in a few more decades.
So far, I haven’t seen any Chinese weapons systems that weren’t defensive or deterrent based, and designed for asymmetry. They have no capability, other than ICBM’s to project power. The US is the only country in the world that can fight a sustained war anywhere on the planet. The US does not have a military for only defense; it’s for global security and power projection, which ironically, is currently paid for by China and Japan. China is only becoming a threat to our influence in Asia. Taiwan and NK are China’s and the other Asian countries security issues to solve, not ours. Trade and terrorism is in everyone’s interest, so we need to be a part of it.
China and India will be more important in the future than Japan and Europe. That’s 2.5 billion people; a lot of markets. Need more allies, less enemies. Like I posted earlier, this is all really just generational, so we have to not F it up for the next 20 years. I personally think nation states are inefficient relics, restricting the movement of goods, services, people and ideas. They should be discarded, but no one is ready for that paradigm.
BT,
You and I agree more than we disagree. You say that I blew it with the comparison to Hitler’s Germany prior to WW2, but then you go on to say that China will dominate Asia. Did you mean militarily or only economically? As for power projection, they have already purchased 2 aircraft carriers that the Russians could no longer afford to operate, and word has it that the Russians, who desperately need cash, are building more for them. Also, the Chinese are well underway with a massive naval buildup in their own shipyards, independent of those purchases.
It is true that China currently lacks large numbers of heavy transport aircraft, but with Rumsfeld’s ill-conceived decision to allow Boeing to set up a plant in China to produce transport aircraft assemblies, you can be sure that they will take that expertise and use it to build their own fleet of transports.
My statement was that China will not only expand economically, but will also move to aquire territory, and the first territory will likely be Taiwan. There are those who will say that’s OK, because it was “theirs” to start with. Japan started expanding their empire prior to WW2 by military conquest, largely because they were resource-poor and wanted more territory. China is not as resource-poor as was Japan, but just to give one example of what I’m talking about, for the past few years Chinese workers have been taking large amounts of timber from Russian territory in Siberia, without their approval. Russia simply cannot stop them, because they can’t easily defend those areas. China also needs oil, just as Japan did prior to WW2, and they aren’t sitting on any major reserves, so they must get it from other countries. They’ll buy the oil for now, but to achieve their dominance of Asia and maintain their military, they’re going to want a source of oil that they can control.
You and I are also in agreement about the ultimate fate of China’s economy under Communist rule. China, Cuba and North Korea are the last major bastions of Communism that haven’t yet “seen the light,” but that doesn’t mean things will end peacefully. In fact, whenever things do start to crumble for China, that’s when you really have to start worrying, because desperation can cause normally sane leaders to do things they wouldn’t ordinarily do. I’m not advocating that we attack China or try to impede their trade. I, like you, would like nothing better than for all countries to trade freely and fairly, and live with each other peacefully. However, China’s massive military buildup goes way beyond their defensive needs, and its offensive capabilities are growing fast.
Fair enough, although I’m not buying the imperialism. Well oil is oil, their troops should be invading Iraq/Iran, not the US. I stand by my second paragraph. It would be nice if everyone in the world would start hating China, like they hate us.
Chinese hate nobody. What makes people hate China is Jealous, Prejudice and selfish.
Look at these:
“think we should fry the chinks and russkis with as many a bombs as we need.i am sick of them using third world coutrys to fight us.so lets nukem now” —Chinese just shot their own Sate.
“Wait a minute, I thought we (the USA) were the only ones in the world allowed to do stuff like this??!!”—It is so called American imperialism
“China’s massive military buildup goes way beyond their defensive needs, and its offensive capabilities are growing fast.”
—so Chinese are evil
“China and India will be more important than Japan and Europe in the future,”
“China is going to be a Superpower and will dominate Asia,”
—The rise of the Chinese means compitition, these make the US feel uncomfortable and jealous,coz they think they are the only one to maintain the stability of the world(rule the world).
US is the most powerful country in the world, why you are so scared.
You have machine-guns already, your enemy just got a 10 inches knife, one day, you find your enemy’s weapons improved into a 12 inches sword,
so you are scared, don’t you think its funny?
Stop being jelous about china. Hopefully they will grow bigger and more powerful and ‘police’ the world beter than the US did.
Chinese do not want to be the ‘World Police’
Chinese just do something for their nation’s security and development. Thats it.
Friends,
I dont think that China going to be so hush like that.History shows that there are not likely to be an imperialism state.They have a very strong fleet those days but still history shows that they never invaded others teritory.They come peacefully as a friend to form a relationship in terms of economic,calture,understanding and etc.
The only thing that they want,is to approve china as a state and all state are welcome to be a good friends.I never came across my history book telling me that China invaded other countries..to take the countries..but i do came across certain countries from west which is thousand miles away from asia..sailing and take over other countries in asia..China..in fact so near to our country for a comparison.
So, I dont think that we should see this as a threat..spying other countries and create unstablise climate around the world is really not a good ideas.The USA knows about it..so does their allies.Please react wisely for the peace in the world and dont create tense just to gain political,economical and imperial ambitious..the citizen pay the tax.