Army "Future": Fewer Drones

The other day, Inside Defense broke the news that the Army was shaving billions off of its massive modernization program, Future Combat Systems. Now, we're starting to get some details. Turns out the drones are the ones getting the axe.

FCS originally envisioned four types and sizes of unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs, buzzing over soldiers' heads. The littlest ones would join platoons. Slightly bigger drones would be assigned to companies. Batallion commanders would supervise an even larger UAV. And the biggest of 'em all -- an armed, robotic helicopter -- would work for the brigade.

Those four classes of UAVs are now being trimmed down to two; just the tiniest and the most gargantuan drones will remain. There will still be other robotic planes in the Army's arsenal -- the hand-held Ravens, the Shadows, and the big, high-flying, bad-ass Warriors.

But the move is the latest in a series of efforts to scale down the once-grandiose FCS vision. First to go were the all-electric, laser-firing, next-gen fighting vehicles. Then, the requirement that those vehicles fit into a C-130 transport plane. And after that, the high-tech uniforms that were supposed to electronically tie the grunts to the larger Army. With the vehicles' designs still very much in flux -- and with the network connecting all of those drones and vehicles together still facing major roadblocks -- who knows what will be left, when FCS finally deploys?

UPDATE 3:55 AM: Speaking of those little Raven drones, it looks like the Marines will start using 'em, too. Inside Defense says that the Corps has given up on its own mini-UAV, the Dragon Eye. During the Iraq invasion, Marines found the drone "too flimsy," and didn't stay in the air nearly long enough. Some fixes were made. But the things still had a nasty habit of "break[ing] apart upon repeated landings." So it's out with the Dragon Eyes. In with the sturdier Ravens.

Bots, Grunts, Choppers Team up for Air Assaults

The Army's 25th Infantry Division's Combat Aviation Brigade has put together a pretty unusual cast to hunt Iraqi insurgents: chopper pilots, sensor analysts, foot soldiers, Navy bomb techs... and three-foot tall robots.

The forms a kind of rapid reaction force in the sky, Stars & Stripes reports. They call the missions "Lightning Strikes."

Commanders and ground troops have long complained that efforts to capture insurgents on the ground are often stymied by the noise and visibility of their vehicles. Helicopter pilots have also complained that they have observed suspicious activities from the air, but have been unable to summon ground troops quickly enough to investigate.

The Lightning Strike missions are aimed at solving both those problems. The 25th Infantry Division’s Combat Aviation Brigade staged its first such mission in Iraq this week when it launched a team of Kiowa and Black Hawk helicopters containing a number of foot soldiers, ordnance technicians and a bomb disposal robot...

The missions differ from traditional air assaults or raids in that they are not flying to a specific target. Instead, the aircraft go out in search of suspicious activity in an area that hasn’t seen a heavy coalition presence.

At the same time, the team is essentially on call to respond to situations observed by other units in other areas. Commanders give the example of tracking down and stopping a vehicle that was seen fleeing a bombing or an attack...

The mission was part of a larger, ongoing operation in northern Iraq dubbed Snake Hunter. The operation involves the creative use of military aircraft in the fight against roadside bombs, and is aimed at intercepting insurgents before they fully arm and conceal the explosives.

“If an [improvised explosive device] has already blown up, then the initiative is already with the enemy,” Tate said. “We’re trying to work ‘left of the boom.’ We want to interdict before the [bomb] blows up.”

Army units have been dropping from the sky with 100-pound, three-feet-high, bomb-fighting Talon 'bots for more than a year. But only on select missions. During attack raids, similar to these "Lightning Strikes," "we left the robots in the garage," one air assault veteran tells Defense Tech. But that was then.

Iran Drone Stalks U.S. Carrier?

There's supposed to be a protective bubble around American aircraft carriers, both on the sea, and in the air. Come too close, and you will get smoked.

Or, at least, that's the idea. But the Iranians are now claiming that they've punctured this bubble, with an robotic plane. Let's hope that the footage is fake, as some are saying.

Iran's Arabic language television station broadcast footage it claimed showed a US aircraft carrier cruising in Gulf waters it said was taken by an unmanned Iranian drone.

The brief minute-long film, which was shown on Al-Alam television's evening news bulletin, showed wobbly aerial footage of an aircraft carrier stacked with war planes as it sailed.

The television's anchor said the film, the property of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard, showed a vessel from "the US fleet in the Persian Gulf".

"A source in the Revolutionary Guard said the drone carried out its mission without US fighter pilots reaching it," the television said.

It said there were 10 such films taken by the drone which showed "more precise information and details about military equipment, foreign forces, and their activities in the Persian Gulf."

The station did not name the vessel nor did it say when the footage was shot.

The broadcast comes near the end of Iran's latest 10-day war games, "Great Prophet II", which military chiefs have said were aimed at showing off Iran's defensive prowess and testing new military hardware.

UPDATE 12:37 PM: "Iran is sustaining the insurgency against British and American forces in Iraq by supplying terrorists with weapons and cash," according to the Daily Telegraph.

Feds Flail Flying Saucer Friend

Yesterday's raids on the homes of Rep. Curt Weldon's daughter and pals is bad news for the Republican party, of course. But it's really, really bad news for the Russian flying saucer community, Wonkette reminds us -- pointing to one of my own dang articles.

Long before he started pushing kooky theories about Saddam's WMD and military data mining, Weldon -- a fluent Russian speaker -- was one a one-man quest to find jobs for former Soviet scientists and engineers. "It keeps them from otherwise working with the bad guys around the world," he told me, for a 2003 Wired News story.

The employment process seemed to begin by getting these Russian firms, like the Saratov aviation company, to hire Weldon's daughter as a lobbyist. Meanwhile, the Congressman would convince arms of the U.S. military to take on projects by the ex-Sovs.

In Saratov's case, Weldon was particularly impressed with "Ekip" -- a flying saucer, relying on vacuum shell for its lift.

"The fact that they had put together a full-scale prototype -- with very limited resources, because of the cutbacks in the military-industrial base -- that was remarkable to me," Weldon said.

So Weldon asked some folks at the U.S. Naval Air Systems Command, or NAVAIR, to take on the saucer project. The initial prototype was supposed to be 500 pounds -- just a speck compared with the 12-ton craft that Saratov claims to have successfully test flown in the early 1990s.

If memory serves, NAVAIR wound up abandoning the project after a while. And if Admiral Joe Sestak winds up beating Weldon in next month's election, it may be a very, very long time before the saucer takes flight.

(Big ups: Haninah)

Questions Still Surround Mystery Drone

When I wrote with some skepticism about the BattleHog attack drone last week, American Dynamics -- the enigmatic makers of the unmanned combat aerial vehicle, or UCAV -- responded with a huffy comment, a link to their website, and an invitation to visit. After e-mailing and calling them, the drone-builders still remain as mysterious as before.

The question remains: can an unknown outfit really come up with a world-beating UCAV? You don't have to be Boeing or Lockheed, of course, to dream up a brilliant design, or to build an advanced aircraft. But you have to be more than a mom-and-pop outfit, too.

In their comments, "Mark K." from American Dynamics says the company is more substantial than it might initially appear. The fact that the phone company lists the business as a "home security and technology services consultancy" -- that's Verizon's description, not Mark & Co.'s. Further, the company has signed an agreement to buy Eagle’s Nest airport in April. The airport continues to serve Atlantic City and Long beach Island, but part of it is now used as a flight testing area for American Dynamics aircraft. This was apparently the site of the BattleHog’s debut flight - but we have not seen any photos yet.

The company web site mentions American Dynamics' previous work on high-speed hull suspension systems for boats, as well as the BattleHog 100X drone and the WorkHog, a civil version for anyone wanting a 3,000 lb spy plane.

But there’s more: an "advanced hybrid power platform" for ground vehicles, and an even more ambitious drone, the S1K UAS – "a large payload, deep strike Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle." Given that the larger BattleHog 350Xis a stealthy attack craft carrying 10,000 lb internally, the S1K must be a real monster.

Even the sky is not the limit for American Dynamics. Since 2001 they have been working on a Single Stage Orbital Vehicle, inteded to repalce the multi-stage rockets used for putting satellites into orbit today. You couldn't accuse them of failing to think big.

They have a down-to-earth side, too -- with "Integrated Smart Home Systems" which will

help make your home into an active partner in managing your busy lifestyle through the use of automated lighting controls, environmental controls, auxiliary device controls, home theater controls, home security controls, home computer networking, and more.

It’s quite a portfolio for a small and obscure company, but little of it has actually made it to the production stage. The only actual product is the suspension system, as far as we know, and the space rockets and stealth planes remain on the drawing board.

As for BattleHog - we're still waiting to see the evidence. Over to you, American Dynamics...

-- David Hambling

UPDATE 1:40 PM: Thanks to Todd in the comments for digging up the pic.

Congo Drone Crash Kills

As if things weren't enough of a Hobbesian nightmare in the Democratic Republic of Congo, comes this horrible news: a Belgian drone fell from the skies over the Congolese capital city of Kinshasa, "killing one woman and injuring [at least] two others," according to Flight International. It's "believed to be the world's first case of a civilian being killed by a crashing military UAV," or unmanned aerial vehicle.

The Hunter-B drone's "forward and rear engines cut out for unknown reasons just after taking off... [then it] burst into flames when it hit the ground," says South Africa's News 24.

"It is too soon to give reasons as to why the engines cut out," Belgian Lieutenant-Colonel Yves Vermeer, the head of the Eufor [European Union force] UAV unit, added, but said that it was "unlikely" to have been shot down.

On July 28, two days before the first round of the presidential election in the DRC, another UAV was lost when it was shot down over the capital by small-calibre gunfire, injuring eight people.

That one was replaced, so Eufor now has three UAVs left, all provided by the Belgian armed forces, together with light-armoured vehicles, and combat and transport helicopters.

The EU force is made up of about 2 300 soldiers drawn from 20 member states plus Turkey with 1 100 based in Kinshasa and 1 200 backing up in Gabon.

They are there until November 30 to provide security for the presidential and legislative elections in the DRC.

While waiting "to discover the exact causes of the accident, Eufor has suspended all UAV flights," said its spokesperson Lieutenant-Colonel Thierry Fusalba.

How Israel's Drones Fought the War, Part II

Israeli military chiefs are being taken out to the woodshed for relying on airpower during the summer campaign in Lebanon. "But after-action data and battlefield imagery are revealing great advances in the ability to respond to asymmetric threats," says Defense News' Barbara Opall-Rome. Thanks largely to unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), "more than 90 percent of the medium-range missile launchers used by Hizbollah were destroyed almost immediately after they fired their first weapon."

By the third night [of the war], the IAF [Israeli Air Force] attained full operational capability of the world’s first Boost Phase Launch Intercept (BPLI) force [maybe it's more of a "a search and destroy operation," as Bill noted in the comments -- ed.] a tightly linked network of manned aircraft and UAVs that saturated the airspace to hunt and immediately kill small, mobile, medium-range missile launchers.

It didn't work against the terror group's teeny-tiny Katyusha rockets. But Israel’s BPLI capability did managed to knock out "more than 100 launchers during the more-than month-long war." UAVs "like the Elbit Hermes 450S Zik, the Shoval (Heron-1/Crusher) and Searcher-2 built by Israel Aircraft Industries" did the lion's share of the work.

“This was the first large-scale use of UAVs, not only for providing a continuous presence over the entire battle area, but in [assisting the direction and delivery of] smart munitions to these very small, well hidden, moving targets,” said Isaac Ben-Israel, a retired IAF major general and former director of Israeli defense research and development...

“This is not like a targeted killing where we have two weeks to plan,” Ben-Israel said. “Here, there’s only a matter of seconds between the time the terrorists emerged to launch these missiles to the time when they returned to their hiding places among innocent civilians. Those medium-range missile launchers became suicide launchers. They were destroyed either before or immediately after they fired their first missile.”

The Israeli Air Force also got better about detecting -- and taking out -- Hezbollah drones. By tweaking "multiple radars never designed to detect such small, slow-moving, pinpoint targets.... F-16C fighter pilots on air patrol [were able] to blast the [unmanned] offenders from Israeli and Lebanese skies with Python-5 dogfighting missiles."

According to Israeli military data, Hizbollah launched four Iranian-made Ababil UAVs during the war. One apparently exploded upon launch; another penetrated Israeli airspace, but crashed just south of the Lebanon border; and the other two were downed over the sea southwest of Haifa and near the area of Tzur in southern Lebanon.

Remnants of the downed drones showed that at least one was equipped with nearly 10 kilograms of explosives, which Israeli intelligence sources believe was destined for Tel Aviv. According to officials here, the UAV that crashed upon launch may have carried a payload of up to 50 kilograms.

Examination of cockpit imagery from one of the engagements shows detection of the target at extremely short range — close enough for the pilot to actually see the UAV. From an extraordinarily low altitude of less than 2,000 feet and at very low speed, the pilot launched his Python-5, which immediately arched and locked on to its target. Imagery shows the missile maneuvering at nearly 90 degrees for a matter of seconds before blasting the gnat-sized target with its explosive warhead.

“This is an historic first for us, and professionals will understand how complicated the mission is. It’s not the classic engagement of an F-16 versus a MiG, where you have a competing aircraft and radar. In this scenario, it’s not plane against plane, but rather network against an asymmetrical target you can barely see,” said the senior IAF official.

BattleHog Drone's Story Stinks

Could a home security consultant operating out of a Manhattan apartment have built the latest and greatest killer drone?

That's what Flight International has reported, in a series of recent articles. According to the magazine, Stefan Amraly and his American Dynamics corporation have put together a new style of unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) – a vertical takeoff and landing machine designed to operate in ‘urban canyons’ and other close terrain.

The BattleHog 100X demonstrator is, supposedly, a 3200-pound aircraft with a 17-foot wingspan, and a weapons load that can include two Hellfires or rocket pods and an M134 minigun.

One of the unusual features is that it has no control surfaces: it is directed entirely by changing the speed and pitch of a ducted fan mounted in the fuselage, a patented item known as “High Torque Aerial Lift.” Toughness is a key selling point: the Kevlar-reinforced composite airframe is designed to withstand 7.62mm rounds from 50m (165ft), as well as near-misses from RPGs. With no moving parts to damage, this could make it an extremely difficult drone to bring down. (And if it does come down it’s specially strengthened to take heavy landings).

Trial flights, including a hover test, allegedly took place in July. BattleHog 100X is claimed to have an endurance of above more than eight hours with a cruising speed of over 200 miles per hour. A bigger version is said to be scheduled for flights in 2008. This will have a 40 foot span and a maximum weight of 16,800kg, including 4,500kg of payload. Armament will include J-DAM guided bombs and AIM-120 AMRAAMs in internal bays, plus a 20mm cannon.

That is, if the Flight International reports are on the money. The BattleHog's makers, American Dynamics, is previously known only from its work on high speed naval vessels, the magazine says. And its CEO, Stefan Amarly, has a business card that "cites a seventh floor office on Broadway in New York City. The same company name and address is identified in the current New York yellow pages business telephone directory as a home security and technology services consultancy." I couldn’t find any information at all about American Dynamics on the Internet. And their odd-ball construction techniques only add to the air of mystery:

American Dynamics took the unusual step of assembling the vehicle inside a black cloth enclosure to prevent its being seen before exhibition opening. Those same screens were again erected to prevent viewing during its disassembly by three people after exhibition closure.

It will be interesting to see how this one pans out. A tough UCAV built to survive in urban environments and engaging the enemy from very close range with a heavy load of weapons has a lot going for it. VTOL means that BattleHogs could be parked close to the battle area and called up when required at short notice – though the eight-hour endurance gives substantial loiter time too. On the other hand, you've got to wonder about something from an unknown supplier based on radical new technology... one that looks a little too much like the flying Hunter/Killer robots in the Terminator movies.

-- David Hambling

Eagle Eyes for Drones & Missiles

In recent years, increasing numbers of military-backed researchers have been borrowing from nature, effectively leveraging millions of years of evolutionary progress. Until we have machines that are as smart, agile and flexible as animals we will have plenty to learn – and robots will increasingly come to resemble living things.

The latest trick learned from nature is called "foveal imaging." Here's how I described it for New Scientist:

Inside an animal's eye, an area at the centre of the retina known as the fovea has a higher concentration of light-sensitive cells than surrounding regions. Showing only the centre of a viewpoint in high focus prevents the brain from being overloaded by high-resolution information.

Now, a computer system that mimics this approach using hardware and software is being developed by Nova Sensors, a company based in California, US. It uses a "detection tracking algorithm" to identify windows of interest within a picture, applying tricks such as motion-tracking, tonal analysis and facial recognition.

Unmanned air vehicles need to carry out real-time target detection and tracking, but are limited by bandwidth and processing power restrictions. That’s where foveal imaging offers big benefits: makers Nova Sensors estimate that for a typical 1024x1024 pixel application, their approach reduces the processor throughput by a factor of 15, and cuts the bandwidth requirement by a factor of five.

Just like digital cameras, infrared sensors are offering more and more detailed images – from los-res, grainy shots to megapixel and beyond. But while these detailed images are nice, it's kind of a waste to expend processor power to make sure every leaf in a tree comes through clear. Instead, you want detail only where it matters, which is what the foveal system provides. It also has the unique advantage that if another enemy does appear out of the foliage, he will be picked up as an ‘area of interest’ and a new high-resolution window will form to show him with crystal clarity.

Take the picture above, for instance. The left panel shows output in 'full resolution' mode, like a conventional imager; the right panel shows foveal regions on one and two eyes, shown in different background resolution conditions.

The high-res windows can also following moving targets - “The ability to 'fly' numerous foveal windows around the large format FPA [Focal Plane Array] for tracking and surveillance applications is a new capability in the industry,” according to Mark Massie, Nova Sensors’ president.

The system is particularly suitable for tracking moving objects, can produce almost perfectly stabilized images from a moving platform, and recognize pre-defined objects. These are all very handy for UAVs -- moving platforms which spend a lot of time following moving targets and looking for defined objects like trucks or people.

The Air Force is also very interested in foveal sensors for munitions, since they provide new capabilities in for terminal guidance. But ultimately, foveal systems will have much wider applications. All sorts of video applications, from videophones to baby monitoring to home security, will benefit from this technology. I suspect that this will be like the many technologies discussed in Weapons Grade where a military development paves the way for a technology which becomes ubiquitous.

-- David Hambling

'Invisible' Boomerang 'Bot

It's nice to have a set of robotic eyes in the sky. But surveillance drones tend to be loud, and rather obvious, as they keep watch above a Middle Eastern city. Many guerilla types know by now to avoid the things.

That's why a small company out of Minneapolis, VeraTech Areo, has built a hand-held spy drone that it says is practically invisible. Battery powered and shaped like a boomerang, the "Phantom Sentinel" unmanned aeiral vehicle (UAV) "is in constant motion and the center of [its] mass is located outside of the fuselage," Catherine MacRae Hockmuth tells us in the current issue of Defense Technology International. "As the aircraft spins, it disappears from vision," an AeroTech fact sheet adds.

Even better, the company promises, is that the folding, backpack-ready drone "has a uniquely minimal cross section allowing it to 'slice' through even the most adverse weather conditions that would keep conventional UAV systems on the ground. The rotational inertia generated in flight allows the UAV to self level and maintain a very high degree of stability, even while hovering."

There don't seem to be any military orders for the Phantom, yet. But the company does have a patents for its hard-to-spot flights -- and a wacky, techno-themed video, too.

Drones, Blimps Lose Out in Border War

For those of you hoping for hordes of drones and blimps to start patrolling the Mexican and Canadian borders, there's bad news this morning. "After a face-off among large military contractors, the Boeing Company was picked by the Homeland Security Department to lead a high-tech effort to secure borders," the Times reports. And unlike proposals from Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and others, Boeing's plan for the Secure Border Initiative, or SBInet, doesn't rely that much on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or airships.

"Boeing's proposal relied heavily on a network of 1,800 towers, most of which would need to be erected along the borders with Mexico and Canada. Each tower would be equipped with a variety of sensors, including cameras and heat and motion detectors," the Washington Post notes. Boeing teamed up for the project with an Israeli company that built a bunch of the imaging equipment used in Israel's controversial fence along the West Bank. That gear, Boeing said, would be less risky and expensive than UAVs or airships -- even though both have been used to watch over southern Arizona for illegals.

But, not to worry: the Times says that there are still a few drones in the Boeing plan -- "small, relatively inexpensive unmanned aerial vehicles that can be launched from a pickup truck by an agent in the field and then fly for, perhaps, 90 minutes." I'm guessing the paper means these drones here.

"Homeland Security has been criticized harshly in recent years for initiatives that have either failed or far exceeded their budgets. In one case, cameras that the department installed on the borders broke down in bad weather," the Post observes.

"The administration has spent $429 million of the taxpayer's money to try and secure our borders with two already-abandoned border security programs," said Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss). He expressed concern that the same thing will happen to SBInet.

Mindful of that record, Boeing emphasized that all its technology has been proven to work. "The low-risk approach is probably going to carry weight here."

"The contract will at least initially be much more limited than some industry officials had expected, valued at $80 million instead of the $2 billion estimate given for the six-year deal," the Times writes.

Attack Of The Genius Robot Cockroach Swarm

I have seen some radical ideas for attacking deep bunkers, but this beats 'em all...

Having previously looked at Deep Digger and the Supercavitating penetrator, I was intrigued by an Air Force research Laboratory program called “Creative Robots to Defeat Deeply Buried Underground Targets” After finally getting clearance, I was able to interview Stephen Thaler of Imagination Engines Inc, the man behind the project. Thaler is evangelical about his brand of artificial intelligence, and the result is a piece in Wired News - "Experimental AI Powers Robot Army."

It’s quite a project. The idea is to develop software to make a collection of robots smart enough to break into, explore and neutralize deep bunkers. The challenges are gigantic.

The robots have to deal with an unspecified number of unknown obstacles as they travel via cable runs, air ducts, service pipes or other channels, dealing with grilles, bars, doors or other checks.

Then they need to correctly identify the target (waste bin, or WMD container?), which is easy for people but hard for robots – and this task requires being out of radio contact.

They have to act in concert and help rather than hinder each other, co-ordinating their efforts to explore and map the facility.

And all the time they have to be able to avoid, outwit or defeat the human defenders of the bunker, whose tactics, numbers and abilities cannot be predicted.

Thaler’s believes his software can do all this. It’s an unusual neural network with the ability to ‘dream up’ new ideas, exploring likely approaches before putting them into action. For example, give it a set of robotic limbs and it will quickly find the most effective way of using them – a video here shows a six-legged robot figuring out how to walk from scratch with no programming in eight minutes flat.

Imagination Engines’ capabilities also extend to sensors. Thaler describes products including a million-pixel array which can interpret input ‘an order of magnitude’ faster than any comparable system and another with formidable powers of recognition, such as distinguishing a T-72 from an Abrams. There is no programming involved: just show the system the two different objects and it figures out how to tell them apart.

The most guarded aspect of the Creative Robots is their tactical intelligence, which seems to be considerable – Thaler describes them as "Machiavellian" in how devious they can be. The Creativity Machine's ability to explore the entire range of possibilities means that in principle it could dream up any tactic that a human could, and more besides.

Within the next few months the software toolkit for Creative Robots will be available for the military. It will run on any standard hardware, turning a pack of dumb robots into smart team players capable of carrying out missions on their own. Thaler believes their speed makes Creative Robots superior to those that rely on human control, “performing at near-human levels of intelligence at Terahertz clock rates, while our joy-stick controlled robots are performing effectively at the 4 Hz clock rates characteristic of the brain.”

The possibilities for civilian use are tremendous. There are a vast number of ‘hard problems’ involved in getting robots to interact with the everyday world which require intelligence. Thaler believes that he has the solution. Look out for a host of commercial and industrial applications.

Dean Vieau, a consultant with many years of experience in the fields of Controls and Machine Vision, is an enthusiastic supporter. In one case study he carried out, Vieau found that a solution using Imagination Engines software was twenty times faster to develop and a hundred times cheaper than the existing approach.

“Imagination Engines represents a significant advancement in the realms of AI. Not just esoteric academic conjecture but real world paths to concrete results.”

As usual the military are developing world-changing technology that will filter down to the rest of us later. But are we really ready for killer robots yet?

“There is a reluctance to entrust lethal missions to autonomous robots,” says Thaler. “However, the bad guys may not share the same reservations. The escalation is inevitable.”

-- David Hambling

Predators to the Rescue

Where Hurricane Katrina hit last year, the Air Force wanted to send in Predator drones, to serve as robotic spotters for search-and-rescue teams. The Federal Aviation Administration, still squeamish about drones flying in civilian airspace, negged the plan, however -- too much risk of a crash with a manned aircraft, the bureaucrats said.

But a new deal between the flyboys and the FAA should allow the Predators to pitch in, the next time disaster hits.

"A Predator would be limited to flying in restricted airspace at an altitude of 19,000 feet," Defense News reports. "Other aircraft would be expected to stay out of the Predator’s way."

On short notice, the four disassembled [Predators] and their trailer-like control center could be loaded into a C-17 Globemaster III transport plane or on trucks and dispatched to the disaster region...

From an airfield as far as 150 miles from the search area, a team of two pilots and two sensor operators would handle the Predators’ takeoffs and landings.

Back at Nellis Air Force Base, Nev., pilots and sensor operators would fly the search-and-rescue phase of the sortie and be in radio or phone contact with recovery operations workers. The Air Force uses a similar split operation for flights over Iraq and Afghanistan.

In a disaster zone, Air Force tactical air control parties and others could use laptop computers hooked up to small antennas to view live Predator images and talk with the crews flying the aircraft.

In addition to sending pictures from its thermal imaging and video cameras, the Predator can also determine location coordinates for rescuers. For example, the Predator can provide an approximate Global Positioning System map coordinate for anything it sees. At night, the aircraft’s laser spotter can mark areas for rescuers wearing night-vision goggles.

Funky Drone Down for the Count

Even in the sometimes-wacky world of next-generation drones, Boeing's X-50A Dragonfly was a bit of an oddball. Helicopter-ish blades "that operated on the same principle as a rotating lawn sprinkler" would spin, to lift the thing off of the ground. Then, the blades would lock in place, forming a wing, so the 18-foot, 1500-pound, turbofan-powered Dragonfly could buzz around fast, like an airplane.

Officials at Darpa were hoping that the machine would provide "a high-speed, rapid response capability from a VTOL [vertical take-off and landing] air vehicle with significant range and stealth improvements."

But for now, those hopes have been dashed. The program has been axed, Aero-Net News reports. "The decision marks the end of the $51.8 million program, with Boeing using the leftover funds to compile a report on just what went wrong."

Right from the start, the Dragonfly was troubled. More standard, VTOL plane combos, like the tilt-rotor Osprey and Harrier jump jet, were tough enough to handle. But the X-50A's "canard rotor/wing" was particularly tricky. In copter mode, it called for "exhaust from the aircraft's turbofan engine [to be] directed up the rotor assembly and through outlets at the rotor tips to cause the rotor to spin," Aviation Week notes. "For fixed-wing flight, the exhaust was directed out the aircraft's tail, causing the rotor to stop spinning and act as a wing, while additional lift was provided by the aircraft's fuselage."

The Dragonfly's first test flight -- in December, 2003 -- came a year later than expected. Another flight, fifteen months after, ended disastrously; cross-coupling in the rotor controls caused the drone to crash.

A second, back-up vehicle was enlisted. And in December, 2005, the Dragonfly successfully flew. But by April of this year, there was more bad news: another crash. "18 minutes in," Aero-Net News says, "the prototype once again lost control during a transition attempt [from fixed-wing flight to rotor]."

DARPA says the second prototype was lost due to poor low-speed control authority, as well as extreme sensitivity to wake strength off the vehicle's rotor. The agency states the accident occurred after rotor wake hit the fuselage, and caused the Dragonfly's nose to pitch up violently -- and in excess of the abilities of the control system to recover.

How Israel's Drones Fought the War

Israel pioneered the art of using drones in combat. So it's a little surprising that the robotic spy planes got so little play in the accounts of the Sabras' recent conflict with Hezbollah. Flight International tries to fix that, with a detail-rich report card on how the Israeli unmanned air force performed.

With the outbreak of hostilities on 12 July, the air force focused its efforts on suppressing Hezbollah's launch capabilities, cutting off its resupply routes from Syria and destroying the fully Hezbollah-controlled quarter of Beirut. UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles] served as the eyes and ears for these operations, launching from bases in central and northern Israel and also from landing strips usually employed by crop-spraying aircraft after rockets landed near air force facilities in northern Israel...

Israel Aircraft Industries (IAI) sources say the air force's recently delivered Heron 1 UAVs performed "beyond expectation" during the war, and demonstrated the full extent of the type's endurance while flying day and night missions over enemy territory. Heron air vehicles flew hundreds of sorties and amassed thousands of flight hours carrying 250kg (550lb) payloads comprising a variety of sensors. IAI says the medium-altitiude, long-endurance vehicle provided unmatched reliability, with no mission aborts.

Air force sources say the Heron was used mainly for electronic-intelligence missions over Lebanon. The service's IAI Searcher 2s also flew thousands of mission hours with excellent reliability, IAI says.

The air force also accumulated 15,000 flight hours with its Elbit Systems Hermes 450 UAVs in the conflict, flying round-the-clock missions with the type, which had previously recorded an annual usage rate of 10,000h. Three Hermes 450s crashed during the war: two as a result of technical problems and one due to operator error, with air force Lockheed Martin F-16 fighters having subsequently bombed the wreckage. Lebanese sources quoted in the Arab language press say the Hermes 450 was also used for precision attack missions. The Israeli air force declines to comment...

Sources say Hezbollah was ready for the UAVs and in many cases camouflaged rocket launchers, particularly with the use of special "carpets" that absorbed the sun's heat and radiated it at night to affect the efficiency of Israeli thermal sensors. "In many cases we had to detect the launch flash to determine the location of the launcher," says an air force source.

As well as highlighting the need for improved sensors, the campaign has prompted the Israeli air and defence forces to work together on an operating concept that will allow their UAVs to combine to provide a more detailed picture of an area of interest. "We will need improved optical payloads for day and night and a joint operational pattern between the Hermes 450 and the Skylark mini UAV," says one source. Another lesson learned is the need to equip tactical UAVs with countermeasures similar to those carried by manned aircraft.

Robotic Frisbees of Death

It ain't easy, picking out evil-doers in the urban canyons of the Middle East; there are so many places to hide. Taking 'em out can be even harder, what with all those noncombatants hanging nearby. But the Air Force thinks it might have an answer to this most vexing problem in counter-insurgency: frisbees.

Not just any frisbees, mind you. Robotic frisbees. Heavily armed robotic frisbees.

The Air Force recently tapped Triton Systems, out of Chelmsford, Mass, to develop such a "Modular Disc-Wing Urban Cruise Munition."

"The 3-D maneuverability of the Frisbee-UAV [unammned aerial vehicle] will provide revolutionary tactical access and lethality against hostiles hiding in upper story locations and/or defiladed behind obstacles," the company promises.

The circular drones will be lanuched "from munitions dispensers or by means of a simple mechanism similar to a shotgun target (skeet) launcher," Triton adds. Once in the air, they'll be tele-operated by soldiers on the ground. Or, if needed, the fightin' frisbees will pilot themselves as they hunt for guerrillas.

Once they catch up to the baddies, the drones will use a series of armor-piercing explosives, shooting jets of molten metal, to eliminate their targets. And these MEFP [Multiple Explosively Formed Penetrator] "warheads will be controllable so as to provide a single large fragment (bunker-buster) or tailorable pattern of smaller fragments (unprotected infantry or light utility vehicles)." The decision of whether to go bunker-buster or infantry-annihilator mode can either be determined by the drones' human operators, "or autonomous target classification routine built into the UAV."

Now, Triton's Frisbee-UAV concept isn't the first time roboticists have looked into disc-shaped drones. From 1992 to 1998, the Navy experimented with a set of unmanned, 250-pound, six-foot-diameter flying saucers. In 2002, Norweigan researchers showed off plans for a circular flying robot "inspired at least partly by the design of Star Trek's USS Enterprise," New Scientist noted.

Around the same time, at the University of Manchester, Jonathan Potts studied how best to control UAVs "based on the Frisbee TM sports disc shape."

"The Frisbee disc has proven its potential on the sports field as a platform for short free-flights," Potts wrote back in an '01 paper. Without "predefined flight orientation," a Frisbee drone "offers novel flight characteristics and manoeuvrability. It is potentially suitable for a variety of mission objectives fulfilling surveillance, communications, munitions and/or airborne radar warning systems."

These days, Potts is focusing less on Frisbee-shaped robots -- and more on Frisbee competitors. "In recent years Jonny has applied his scientific knowledge to develop a range of sports discs with improved aerodynamic performance," says the website of his new company, which makes a line of "super-durable" spinners for $16 apiece. Explosives and robotic controls are not included.

J-UCAS Takes Another Hit

Hot on the heels of the Air Force's February withdrawal from the Joint Unmanned Combat Air System (J-UCAS) and the Navy's takeover of the promising program, the attack drone is about to take another hit.

"[A] co-worker who has good friend in the congressional budget office says the UCAS-D (as they call J-UCAS now) is headed for a $200 million plus cut next year," reports a Defense Tech source.

What this will mean for Boeing and Northrop Grumman (each of which is building demonstrators) remains to be seen.

Then there's this puzzling piece of news from the Farnborough air show, as reported by Flight International:

The U.S. Navy has begun studying the need for a new stealthy strike aircraft -- a mission that was once to have been performed by the A-12, cancelled in 1991. "They will do a formal analysis of alternatives at some point," says Chris Chadwick, Boeing vice- president and general manager global strike systems.

This is another stealth strike aircraft on top of the Lockheed Martin F-35C Lightning? Will it be manned? Is this just another repackaging of N-UCAS, like what the Air Force did in turning J-UCAS into its new Long Range Strike study?

Color me confused.

--David Axe

Slate Takes on Mirsad-1

Dan Kois at Slate called the other day with some questions about drones, especially the Hezbollah model that Israel reportedly shot down on Monday. Today his story on the subject went live:

The Hezbollah drone, an Iranian-built Mirsad-1, is somewhere between a Raven and a Predator in size and less sophisticated than either. The Mirsad-1 cannot communicate around the globe via satellite technology, and it has no internal GPS navigation system. As a result, the Hezbollah drone was probably operated from a high hilltop by one or two people with joysticks and a laptop—with a drone like this one, it's imperative that the operator never lose direct line of sight.

Let's give Dan some clickage love here.

--David Axe

Killer Swarms: The New Generation

I have an article in this month’s BBC Focus magazine –- “the world's best science and technology monthly” -- about swarming robots. Previously I've looked at the potential for the deployment of large numbers of battlefield UAVs, but this goes into some detail about what flocking and swarming behavior actually mean and how they are being applied to robotics.

Nature is way ahead of us here. A flock of a thousand starlings can maneuver together with ease, changing flight plans from moment to moment, and without any central control. The methods they use are remarkably subtle and effective, and researchers are borrowing these from nature to enable multiple UAVs to operate in the same airspace without the risk of collision. The pioneering first flight of a flock of Onyx guided parachutes last year was a small milestone in unmanned flight.

Swarms are a level up from flocks. With swarms there is communication between individuals – known as stigmergy – and the result is incredibly complex, ‘intelligent’ behavior. This is what iRobots Swarmbots are are about. The Swarmbots have already shown their ability to co-operatively explore and navigate, for example searching an area in the most efficient way without central co-ordination.

But greater levels of integration are possible than nautre can achieve. The article includes an interview with Prof Owen Holland who is building Gridswarm:

Imagine a large group of small unmanned autonomous aerial vehicles that can fly with the agility of a flock of starlings in a city square at dusk. Imagine linking their onboard computers together across a short-range, high-bandwidth wireless network and configuring them to form an enormous distributed parallel computer. Imagine using this huge computational resource to process the sensory data gathered by the swarm, and to direct its collective actions. You have now grasped the idea of a flying gridswarm.

The latest incarnation of this concept is the Ultraswarm an indoor flying cluster computer composed of miniature robot helicopters.

Although the article concentrates on civilian applications, from space explorartion to firefighting and domestic cleaning, most of the really advanced work in this area is military.

Swarms are extremely robust, have a high level of built-in redundancy and are well suited to complex and rapidly-changing environments. Swarming robots are a natural for the battlefield. Because the individual elements can be made small and cheap, swarms can consist of a very large number of units – and the success of this approach in nature hints at how effective it is.

UAV swarms are likely to arrive sooner rather than later. Check out the Killer Bee It’s a flying wing with a span of less than seven feet and an airframe made of three components. Its thick wing means it can be released from aircraft at high speeds. It has eight-hour endurance with a twenty-pound payload.

A unique feature of the KillerBee’s geometry is that it can be stacked. Numerous planes can be stored in a small space. This, plus the ability to air-deploy the KillerBee at high speeds, means an airplane can release a single KillerBee for a close look at a dangerous target, or it can release a swarm of KillerBees to overwhelm the defenses of a target.

As recounted in my book, Weapons Grade, things are likely to develop extremely quickly over the next few years, with swarming systems producing a transformation comparable to precision weapons. There are no technological barriers, just cultural ones.

The new paradigm for air power is coming, and it's about to kick the door down.

-- David Hambling

UPDATE: Contradictory reports over whether the drone shot down by the IDF yesterday carried a warhead. Certainly Hezbollah are aware of the possibilities.
"You can load the Mirsad plane with a quantity of explosives ranging from 40 to 50 kilos and send it to its target," Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is quoted as saying in November 2004. "Do you want a power plant, water plant, military base? Anything!"
Range of the Mirsad-1 is likely to be well over 100 Km.

Inside Global Hawk

The 18th Reconnaissance Squadron -- newest operators of the spiffy Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawk drone -- offered me total access during a visit last week. I was impressed with the bird before my visit; I left even more so.

Nearly a decade after its inception, the Air Force is finally migrating the Global Hawk drone from demonstration to production; the 18th standing up at Beale Air Force Base in northern California in May is just one aspect of this transition. Co-located 12th RS flies operational missions while the 18th trains pilots, sensor operators and maintainers. Now the Reserve 13th RS and the California Air National Guard have begun contributing crews to the active-duty squadrons. All this represents the "regularization" of Global Hawk ops.

Meanwhile, Global Hawk production is ramping up at Northrop Grumman's Palmdale, California, plant, with around 17 aircraft worth $70 mil apiece under assembly for the Air Force. These are in addition to the seven (cheaper) Advanced Concept Technology Demonstration aircraft delivered from 1998, three of which were lost in accidents. The Navy has taken delivery of two RQ-4As to explore its Broad Area Maritime Surveillance concept. One A model flown by the 12th RS is deployed to support operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. A maintenance trainer A model is permanently parked in the 18th RS hangar on the same ramp space occupied by the 9th RW's Lockheed Martin U-2S Dragon Ladies. Finally, the first RQ-4Bs with longer wings and more payload capability begin rolling off the production line in late August. The Air Force plans to field more than 50 Global Hawks by 2015.

The seemingly modest size of the projected RQ-4 fleet belies its enormous potential. The aircraft can orbit at up to 65,000 feet for as many as 30 hours while simultaneously carrying an Electro-Optical camera, an Infra-Red camera and a Synthetic Aperture Radar with Moving Target Indicator. Sensor data is relayed via satellite to a ground station (see pic at left) for processing and dissemination, giving theater commanders a multi-spectral bird's-eye view of the battlefield.

The aircraft's endurance means it can do the work of many older (manned) aircraft such as the U-2, according to 18th RS commander Colonel Christopher Jella. Due to the limited endurances of the human body and traditional life-support systems, a U-2 force would need at least three aircraft and as many as 10 pilots to maintain a 24-hour orbit -- and it would do so at greater cost while risking those pilots' lives. Two Global Hawks could provide indefinite constant surveillance of a battlefield while risking no lives. While there are no cost savings in personnel (the Global Hawk community maintains a high pilot-to-aircraft ration in order to limit its crews to four-hour shifts), by cutting back on take-offs and landings (where most wear and tear occurs) Global Hawk operations reduce maintenance costs by over a given period versus manned aircraft.

A rough calculus indicates that 50 Global Hawks might do the work of more than 100 U-2s. Considering that today's U-2 force numbers slightly more than 30 aircraft, this means a tremendous leap in the U.S. Air Force's surveillance capability. With the U.S. Navy, Australia, Germany and the U.K., among others, considering RQ-4 purchases, one imagines a robust future surveillance constellation for democratic nations.

During my visit, I got to poke around the containerized Mission Control Element, where pilots and sensor operators crew (via Ku-band satellite datalink; see pic at right) aircraft that might be flying on the other side of the globe. I also checked out the similar Launch and Recovery Element, which takes off and lands the bird from its deployed location using a line-of-sight datalink. Plus there was a visit to the 18th RS hangar, where maintainers toiled on the squadron's RQ-4A. To call this remote-controlled plane BIG is an understatement.

There has been a lot of Congressional waffling on the Air Force's recent request to retire the U-2 in favor of the Global Hawk. I was skeptical of the proposal myself until my visit. The U-2 is an impressive aircraft in its own right, but with Global Hawks rolling off the production line and proving themselves overseas, the old Dragon Lady's days are numbered.

Check out some sweet pics at my Flickr!

--David Axe

Who Killed the Killer Drone? (Redux)

Lockheed Martin's recent unveiling of its Polecat UAV might be related to the nascent Air Force program to field a new bomber by 2018. But then, it might not. Some industry insiders believe the Air Force is bent on keeping pilots in bomber cockpits, no matter what.

After years of steady growth in funding, development and operational use, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have begun to rival — and, in some cases, exceed — the capability of man