I am sure the Iranians do not under estimate the power of the only World Superpower. But what they will do is take the US down with them. This war will be disastrous to the US if they make any simple mistake.

First, mistake US is under estimating the Iranians Power and arm reach to make damage to World oil supply.

Second mistake US is not prepared to fight a dogged in enemy on its ground.

Third mistake Iran is a large country compared to Iraq and Afghanistan.

Fourth, US better be prepared for an all open war from Afghanistan to Egypt.

Assuming US takes care of all above and overwhelms its enemies with its firepower that will be first step toward a victory. The hard part will be next step how can the US control this vast region and stabilize it when it is not able to stabilize two small nations, Iraq and Afghanistan.

Wondering why Iran wants the bomb? Look at history: we deposed their democratically elected government in 1953 and supported a bloody 8 year war against them with our stooge Hussein. Also look at a map: Iran is surrounded, with US troops in to the west in Iraq, east in Afghanistan, south in Qatar, etc.

when will ALL learn that you can make friends and influence people a lot easier with butter instead of bullets?

(and I’m hawk as the rest here)

but pragmatic more than most, perhaps

They also know that in terms of responsive military capabilities, we still hold the upper hand. Unfortunately, every time we look at offensive options, the target profiles get larger as the underpinning intelligence looks weaker.

Ironically, the best way to deal with Iran is also the best way to handle Hugo Chavez: Ignore all the posturing and bluster, carefully maintain a responsive military posture and deal with government at the margins on issues of mutual concern. Hopefully cooler heads will eventually prevail and the mullahs will walk back on the nuclear issues. If not, we’ll always be ready to make noncompliance with the NPT painful.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think we should be soft on Iran. The hostage crisis in ‘79 was unforgivable and the mullahs should not be rewarded with improved relations unless they reciprocate. The Bush administration’s hard nosed approach just allows them to split our negotiation partners like the Norks did two years ago.

But people often forget that Iran is not a monolith of solidarity people. The rally around the flag is way overrated especially nations that have huge 2nd class peoples with oppressive governments like Iraq (which I remember some rally around the flag rhetoric for as well at first). Iran not only has a large liberal Student Revolution movement that are mainly Persian, but also other large ethnic groups that have lived as second class peoples for sometime like (SW) Shia Arabs, (N central)Azerbaijani, (SE) Bal ouch, and (NW) Kurds all even have active revolution groups fighting now. I think everyone here and I would imagine most especially in Iran remember very clearly what happened in Iraq after 91’ when 80% of the population revolted and a handful of helicopters some tanks and brutality resulted in mass graves of hundreds of thousands of Shia/Kurds. Spontaneous revolution without outside direct assistance at least air cover is SUICIDE.

A air campaign is more than in our ability (air force, navy has been barley tapped in this WOT so far) and with the goals of both setting back their nuclear program and secondary goal degrading the central governments control could pay off big. The groups mentioned above especially Kurds, Balouchi, Shia Arab would jump at the opportunity that fact mixed with some US SOF and air support ala Afghanistan campaign we could tip the balance against the mullahs.

I would agree that Iran could cause a significant increase in terrorism from Persian Gulf to Europe to Israel but it would be containable. And most importantly it reinforces why that sacrifice today will be minor compared to tomorrow and a nuclear capable Iran. As far as the “Iran shutting down the Persian Gulf” they tried just that in the 80’s when they had a lot larger Navy to work with and the US Navy wiped the Iranians from the Persian Gulf and opened the straits in a matter off weeks (don’t under estimate the US military).

I would also be very curious to see how much Iraq calmed down in about the 3rd month by which time Sadr and the Mehdi (self bragging Iranian proxies) would have been beat down again.

I don’t believe in sanctioning a country no matter what it does. I think it does more harm to the people than it does with their government. BRIC is not going to abide by them anyway.

A military strategy, with air strikes or ground troops is not plausible, since we have proven in Iraq we have no clue on how win the “peace”, and our Euro “allies” are useless. We are good at destroying things though, but that doesn’t help us or the world in the long-term.

We made Iran the major player in the region, so we must live with that. Iran with Nukes is discouraging, but countries build nuclear weapons for defense, not offense. Although the world has had several close calls over the decades we are all still alive, so MAD does work. We talked to the Soviets for 40 years, why not Iran. If they are smart, Israel and Iran will keep their fingers off the damn button. It is hard to believe that Iran and Israel were once allied.

All of you know that I prefer interaction and engagement over isolation, so that is my play. You will destroy the Mullahs faster with Iran’s young people educated and prosperous and wanting a piece of our decadent culture. I give the Mullahs no more than 15 years in power if we play our cards right.

Even though I hate dope smoking, peace loving hippies, that is exactly what the Middle East needs; less religion, less anger, and more sex, drugs, and rock and roll.

Any military action against Iran is a lose, lose sisuation for the United States. As some of my lady friends the U.S. “…just doesn’t get it.”

Since last spring Iran has been scoreing victory after victory againt the United States in the Islamic World and the United States is so fat, dumb and stupid we don’t even konw there is a war going on. Everytime the Iranians demostrate another weapons system they are making points in the Islamic World, it a direct challenge to the United States.

For alomst a generation now the United States has been talking about the Cybe/In formationcentric War. One would assume the u.S, would be out in front in this theatre but we are way behind. The United States is still worrying about closing down newspapers and blocking TV channels when the internet is the media of choice.

As the late Walt Kelly said through “Pogo”: “…we ave meet the enemy and he is us.”

I thought the Generals/Admirals who make up the OSD might have gotten it when Hezbollah took on Israel and whipped them, but no the American Generals are to self posessed with there own invinciblitiesand buying F-22’s and F-35’s to see that they are losing the Middle East all together.

Hitting Iran’s nuclear facitities, if they even exist would be suicide for the United States in the Middle East and would make Iran THE regional super power.

Like going after Iraq’s WMD’s, even when there was no creditable evidence that any such weapons existed, a strike on Iran would be equally as humiliating to the United States in the Islamic World.

No matter if we wipe out a nuclear program that is only months away from producing a weapon or just make more holes in the desert as we did in Iraq the Iranians win. We will give then the one thing they can’t do on there own and that is stand up to to Satin and take the hit.

I’m outa here for a week, so all of you can have at me. I will be attending mu annual Regmental Reunion.

ALLONS,
Byron Skinner

More realistically, we should exert economic pressure on Iran. We should get sanctions when we can, we should criticize them publically, we should isolate them as much as possible. Sometimes we seem to forget that Iran is a dinky little nation that has little money. We have a huge military force right next door. Oh sure, were we to invade them, they’d cause as much trouble for us as they could. But that wouldn’t stop us from turning back the clock 1000 years. Iran isn’t itching to get bombed.

And always keep in mind, the iranian revolutionary guard was designed from it’s onset as a force to project and expand the iranian revolution globally. It may not be able to spread the revolution to regions that are unwilling to embrace a theological-republic but it still retains the vestigal structures to act on a planetary scale to disrupt the global trade network; Highly disciplined light infantry, guided man-portable weapons, a well developed linguistic program and a willingness to to plan and execute one way missions. This coupled with a world where anti-american is rife providing a large ocean to swim in is a perfect receipe for a global insurgency able to strike strategic targets resulting in system disruptions that at this time are unimaginable beyond the realm of a few websites such as these.

The revolutionary guards may be the prototype of future armies, an armed force that is part of state and yet a distinct entity, an armed force that draws it’s rank and file predominately from one nation yet is able to recruit trans-nationally in brigade size, an armed force that is able to ride the air/sea/land/cyber highways of the global economy to implement national/transnational policies.

The u.s. air force will win the battle over the skies of iran, but no one will win the war that ensues. Maybe the israelis and their neo-con fifth column can convince someone else to fight this one? I hear the french want to be considered a world power again